Rising Verbal Conflict Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Raises Concerns of Armed Clash

Increasing concerns exist about the potential of military engagement among East African neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

Ethiopia-Eritrea border
Ethiopia and The Eritrean government cooperated in the armed struggle in northern Ethiopia but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his government's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Amid persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on recently that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Region

So far, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in the country, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s the ruler ended this arrangement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations remained at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The two endorsed a statement that the conflict was over – a action that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in the country's previous armed struggle in Tigray.

However relations have subsequently deteriorated anew.

Paul Parker
Paul Parker

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